Ok, it’s probably getting a little annoying, but what a busy time I’m having. I haven’t written an article in about 5 weeks, and in that time this has happened: I started dual-enrolling in college, I started football in high school, my cat died, various other bizarre events occurred, and a Hurricane named Irma hit me. Yeah, it’s been weird. Unknown to me, my favorite time of year had arrived: the Playoffs!

So, let’s get down to it. 16 drivers are now in the playoffs, the rest don’t matter. 3 rounds with 3 races each will take place, eliminating the lowest ranking four drivers after each round, until we are left with just four drivers. Those four battle it out in a winner take all finale in Homestead-Miami, where the highest finisher wins. New to the playoffs this year are the playoff points, which are given to drivers at the beginning of each round. Here are the standings, with playoff points, going in.

Martin Truex Jr.: 2053

Kyle Larson: 2033

Kyle Busch: 2029

Brad Keslowski: 2019

Jimmie Johnson: 2017 (Wonder if that’s more than a coincidence, or fate.)

Kevin Harvick: 2015

Denny Hamlin: 2013

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 2010

Ryan Blaney: 2008

Chase Elliot: 2006

Ryan Newman: 2005

Kurt Busch: 2005

Kasey Kahne: 2005

Austin Dillon: 2005

Matt Kenseth: 2005

Jamie McMurray: 2003

 

Ok, if you were shocked by the giant lead Truex has, I feel the need to say: I told you so. Not to brag, but I literally predicted that the playoff point system would benefit him, and what do you know, it did just that.

Other than Truex, Larson, and Kyle Busch, I see the rets of the field as pretty even. It’s a rather simple outlook: survive. That’s basically what you have to do until Homestead. You can not win anything until Homestead, so don’t try to. If your car is good enough to win a couple stages and a race, take it. But if you have to risk everything for a point or two, and you don’t need it, don’t do anything dumb. Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch all found their way to Homestead-Miami by doing that. As my coach says, constant consistent pressure. Now, let’s take this thing one round at a time.

Round One:

Race 1: Chicagoland: I’m going to be honest, Chicago is one of the less predictable races in the playoffs. It’s a bit like Talladega’s younger and less acknowledged cousin. Slightly different than the other 1.5 mile tracks, it has a habit of either having a fuel mileage ending or a late caution, both of which make it a nail-biter. As far as who I see winning this race, I actually will look to the less experienced playoff drivers. Chase Elliot and Kyle Larson have shown speed here, and both enter with a decent amount of momentum, and both seem like they could snatch a victory. But, Larson has a bit more momentum, so I’ll go with him.

Race 2: Loudon: This one is a bit harder. Toyota seems to have a stranglehold on this 1 mile pancake, but there’s so many Toyota drivers. But, there is one who has something to prove. Matt Kenseth learned earlier this year he would be replaced by rookie Eric Jones next year, and he currently has no ride. Now, he can prove that decision a bad one by getting a win and punching a ticket to the second round.

Race 3: Dover: Ok, Dover. I have no idea why, but I really just don’t like this place. But, it’s growing on me. Another 1 mile track, that is it’s lone connection to Loudon. While the ‘Magic Mile’ is as flat as a pancake, the ‘Monster Mile’ has such steep banking that you are never straight up and down. And there is no room for error. One slip up and you will be introduced to the inside wall. Now, Dover is a tricky one to predict. The track has a mind of it’s own, and earlier this year it nearly gave the win to young gun Ty Dillon before handing it to the master of the monster: Jimmie Johnson. I don’t see Johnson winning it, but perhaps his young teammate Chase Elliot, who has progressively gotten better here, could get his first win in this one.

Eliminated after Round 1:

Austin Dillon: Honestly, Dillon really is no match for his opponents in the playoffs. It’s not that I doubt Dillon, but I doubt his team: Richard Childress Racing. Speaking of which…

Ryan Newman: Newman will put up a fight, but honestly, the man just doesn’t have what he needs to compete. Honestly, he never has.

Kasey Kahne: If I’m brutally honest, Kahne doesn’t belong in the playoffs. The man isn’t remotely fast enough to be in here, and really just got in because of his lucky win at the Brickyard.

Jamie McMurray: I hate to do this, but McMurray once again will not make it out of round one. I very well could be wrong about this one though, because McMurray was in the top-ten of points all season, and he has been remarkably consistent. So look for him to get an A+ for effort.

Round 2:

Race 4: Charlotte: Martin Truex Jr. This race and track have his name all over it, and that’s it. Enough said.

Race 5: Talladega: So, this is where things get interesting, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is definitely the favorite in this race, and I don’t disagree. But he won’t be the major story. Some notable driver will find himself on the outside looking in, because it is Talladega, and that is something that Dega is known for. Hopefully it won’t be the crappy race it was last year.

Race 6: Kansas: Kyle Busch is a fast man right now, and I think he and Truex will duel it out in this one, but it will be Busch winning out. And while that happens, watch for the effects of Talladega to lead to desperation by some.

Eliminated after Round 2:

Matt Kenseth: Hate to do it, but Newman Just doesn’t have what he needs to make it out of this one. Wouldn’t be the first time, but it may be the last.

Kevin Harvick: Remember the notable driver Talladega might eliminate? This is the guy.

Kurt Busch: Same with Harvick, just not as popular. Other than his win this year in the Daytona 500, his career on restrictor-plate tracks has been far from pleasant.

Brad Keslowski: Wow, I’m hitting the big names hard, aren’t I? This last one came down to Brad and Ryan Blaney. But, Blaney has been just a bit better on tracks like Kansas and Charlotte, and he’s pretty good at staying out of trouble. That said, Keslowski gets the boot.

Round 3:

Race 7: Martinsville: A race known for surprises, this won’t disappoint. At this point, it’s Truex, Kyle Busch, and Larson vs. everyone else. To get to Homestead, you will have to pull a surprise out of the bag. Well, watching this race earlier in the year, one driver skillfully stayed out of trouble, and was in position to pounce. Chase Elliot takes the 24 back to victory lane at the Paperclip.

Race 8: Texas: This is easy. Jimmie Johnson is the Texas master, or is he? Earlier this year, Ryan Blaney was clearly his equal, if not superior. Blaney or Johnson wins this one, and makes it to Homestead.

Race 9: Phoenix: Has anyone who dominated won at Phoenix recently? No. So that scratches Truex, Busch, and Larson off the list. But if someone else wins, doesn’t that mean just one of them will make it. It does. So I’m going to guess this is the more realistic Phoenix race where Larson is the one who wins.

Eliminated after Round 3:

Ryan Blaney: Blaney has the skill to be a champion. But this year just isn’t the one. Next year? Maybe.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse is actually pretty decent at the three tracks in Round 3, but he has to be great to advance.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is great, but Chase Elliot’s surprise win and Johnson’s win at Texas will make it impossible for him to hurdle his playoff point heavy opponents.

Kyle Busch: Didn’t see this coming did you? With the way thing have gone this year, it just seems impossible for the three most dominant drivers to make it out of all three rounds without one of them falling. Like it or not, Busch just isn’t as fast as Larson and Truex.

Final Round:

Race 10: Homestead

Fourth place: Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie has one win at Homestead, a wild one last year, with his championship. I don’t see him repeating, but hey, I would never bet against him.

Third Place: Chase Elliot: Chase has a habit of doing what he needs to, and doing his best. Skill wise, he may be the best of the final four (Or tie with Larson), but his Chevy just isn’t quite fast enough to get it done.

Second Place: Martin Truex Jr. I’m crazy to say it, I know. But playoff points are no help here. Truex is good at Homestead, but…

First Place: Kyle Larson. …Larson is better. Larson has been so close the past few years, but hasn’t sealed the deal. With his newfound skill on restarts, and his pure skill and speed, Larson will beat the best to claim his first Cup Series crown.

 

So, like it? I’ve actually considered this scenario for a while, and Truex, Larson, and Elliot were all in my final four at the start of the year. I’d also like to point out that I predicted Joey Logano’s unprecedented missing the playoffs. I feel that all of these make sense, but I will be the first to say that I could be totally wrong in almost every way. The playoffs have proven that to me many times. But there’s only one way to find out. Throw the green flag, and let’s go racing.