2017 was already hyped about. The unexpected retirement of Carl Edwards and the planned retirement of Tiny Stewart had left gaps in the sport as far as firepower went. Jimmie Johnson was coming off a record tying 7th championship, which in the past has indicated a decline in performance. And on top of that, young talent was swarming into the gaps left by recent retirees. All this, combined with Nascar’s new playoff point system, means that Nascar had the possibility of a wild season. Only three races in, it’s been one of the craziest seasons to date.

All three races have ended with late passes for the lead and hectic battles throughout the race. But the biggest surprise: the young guns. Led By Chase Elliot and Kyle Larson, Nascar’s fresh wave of talent is becoming a very strong force.

Every race could have been won by one of the young guns. Elliot, Larson, Trevor Bayne, Eric Jones, and Ryan Blaney  have led this charge. While none of this squad have won yet, Blaney and Larson have finished second in each race. Elliot and Larson have been almost dominant, Blaney has been a hard charger, and Jones and Bayne have been quietly consistent, gradually working their way towards the front. This is most impressive, but there is one stat from past seasons which has been on my mind, and it seems to contradict the variety of drivers out front this year.

In the past decade or so, only one year has had more than 15 winners. 2011, when there were 17. Now, I’d like to do a head count of drivers who seem bound for wins.

Already Won: Kurt Busch, Brad Keslowski, and Martin Truex Jr. 3

Certain They Will Win: Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliot, Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch. 8

Likely To Win: Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. 13

On Track For Winning Chance: Eric Jones, Trevor Bayne, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne, Daniel Suarez, AJ Allmendinger, Ty Dillon, and Aric Almirola. 25

See those numbers after the lists? That’s the total number of drivers I’ve listed. 25. That is one less than the number of races prior to the Chase. The on track for winning group is pure speculation at this point. However, if even half of them win, there will 19 different winner. And if more than 16 win prior to the chase, that means we would have more winners than Chasee contenders. See what I’m getting at? We may end up in a scenario where it will be point racing for the playoffs, not victories. Because in the situation where we have more than 16 winners, points are what’s getting you in. This may be the year where all this win and you’re in stuff goes out the window. So, hence the title, is it that year at last? Will we see an epic points battle where we see such a variety of victors that playoff spots come down to points? I’m hoping so. After all, that’d be epic. Phoenix will reveal more.