Michael To Robert: Dover Analysis

I’m a little heartbroken here. Phew, got that off my chest. Never have I had my favorite driver in the Chase, and he has now been eliminated. Due to this, I’m doing something different for this article. I’m going to ask questions, and two friends of mine: Michael and Robert, will answer them. (Knowing them, thing may be a bit more of an argument) Hope you enjoy this.

Me: The four eliminated drivers after Dover were Tony Stewart, Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, and Jamie McMurray. Any surprise?

Michael: No question here, I though that Larson and Stewart would go father. Both showed amazing speed over the Summer, and both fell in the first round. And with the history Stewart has in this round (9 wins at the three tracks) I’d have expected him to be a serious threat each weekend. And Larson was the same. Not to be cruel, but I never expected Buescher or McMurray to get even close to progressing, and neither did.

Robert: I agree on Buescher and McMurray. The thing is, Buescher never had the speed to make it. And McMurray just isn’t good enough. However, I disagree on Stewart. I honestly never expected him to get anywhere. Not because I doubt his skill. But his team. This team isn’t the team that won the 2011 championship. This is a ragtag group thrown together under a rookie crew chief. Even Stewart needed better than a hand-me-down crew to advance. As for Larson, this wasn’t his fault. A broken battery, to many men over the wall, and a blown tire aren’t his fault. It’s just bad luck.

Michael: That’s a little harsh on Stewart’s crew. But yes, These four all fell out for different reasons, most of which couldn’t be helped. What they can be proud of is that they went down fighting.

Me: Austin Dillon advances in his first Chase, and he beats a 3 time Cup champion to do so. Isn’t that shocking? And will he go farther?

Robert: Dillon proved that he comes to race. He’s sort of been shoved in the background as Larson and Chase Elliot launch their careers, but the man in the 3 car is to be watched.

Michael: I agree 100%. Dillon is no stranger to pressure. He is a Truck Series champion, an Xfinity Series champion, and a Little League World Series champion. This young man is no stranger to pressure. He knows his stuff, and he’s driving to prove that RCRis still a top notch organization.

Robert: And he will advance farther. Look at his results at Kansas, Charlotte, and Talladega this year. Top-tens at both Charlotte and Kansas. And a solid run in last year’s Chase Kansas race before a blown tire. As for Talladega, Dillon was wreckd there four times earlier this year, yet he still finished 3rd, and he nearly won that race! This could be Dillon’s big moment in this Chase. And I have him winning Talladega.

Michael: The stats don’t lie, Dillon will do well. And RCR’s restictor-plate program is formidable. But still, he is a first time Chase driver. He’s going to have to fight to advance. However, I think he is more than capable of winning Dega.

Me: Martin Truex Jr. destroyed all competitors is round one. Does that success continue?

Robert and Michael: Yes!!

Robert: (Laughs) Truex is doing things no one has done before. And Kansas and Charlotte are his best tracks. He could easily win both. I believe he wins Charlotte for sure, and get’s a top-2 at Kansas.

Michael: No argument here. Except I have him winning both Charlotte and Kansas. (Laughs)

Me: Team Penske has sort of been in the shadows the past few months, but they have ben good. Do both progress past this round?

Michael: I think one will. And I think Keslowski is the man. You two hate me for this, but I like Brad. He’s aggressive, he’s skilled, and he has a burning desire to win. Team Penske has won a race in this round both times this format of the Chase has been run, and they swept it last year. Look for a win from Brad.

Robert: We do hate that you like Brad, but I agree. Penske will win in one of these races. But I’m looking at Logano. Last year he dominated this round, winning all three races. He could do it again. I personally don’t think he will, but a victory in Kansas seems like a distinct possibility.

Me: Joe Gibbs Racing failed to win the first round, something it hasn’t yet had happen. All four of it’s drivers advanced, but some weren’t to impressive. Do they make it through this round?

Robert. Phew. I don’t know what to expect from them this round. This round always takes at least two JGR drivers out. And that probably will happen again. If it does, I think that Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch bite the dust. Both have sort of disappeared since the Spring, with the exception of Busch’s win at the Brickyard. Kansas and Charlotte are two tracks Busch typically struggles at, and Talladega is unpredictable. Not a good combo.

Michael: You amaze me Robert. How quickly you forget things. Busch was amazing at thes tracks earlier this year. He will be again. And Edwards will live to fight another day. I think Hamlin bites the bullet this round. And Kenseth should be fine. Only Hamlin seems to be the weak link in this squad.

Robert: But Hamlin won Daytona! He’s far stronger than he ever has been. How can you eliminate him?

Michael: I don’t deny he’s a darn good driver. He’s just not good enough right now.

Me: Stewart-Hass Racing lost it’s leader in the first round. But it did get a win with Kevin Harvick in Loudon. Are they going to be a threat?

Robert: Harvick is always a threat, and he always will be. He will progress. But Kurt Busch is a problem. He is not the same strong driver we saw earlier this year. Something has fallen apart for this team. Kurt needs a rally, but I’m not sure I see it happening.

Michael: I think Busch is fine. He has speed, he has stats, and he believes in his team. He’ll be fine. I’m actually worried about Harvick. He needs to either pull off a win this round, or he’ll be in trouble in Talladega. That track has it out for Harvick, and it could take him out of the Chase.

Robert: Fair point. But I do want to say one thing. Stewart will not roll over and call it quits. He will continue to fight for victories, and he may get one. And Danica Patrick is a Talladega threat. The woman can drive, so watch out for the 10 in Dega.

Me: Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won since this Spring in Fontana. That’s 24 races, the third longest winless streak in HMS history. And Jimmie Johnson is stumbling. Can the team be good when it counts?

Michael: I believe that Johnson is in trouble. He once again is stumbling in this new Chase format. He won’t get far. But Chase Elliot is different. He proved he is good enough to win in Chicagoland a couple weeks ago. Now, we go to 2 more 1.5 mile tracks. Elliot will run well at those, but I think he’ll win Talladega, where he ran outstanding in the Spring.

Robert: I agree in most of that. Johnson is in trouble. And Elliot is the team’s best hope at a win. But I have said win coming a week earlier in Kansas. The 24 team has a good history there, and Elliot’s 1.5 mile track prowess is outstanding. The 24 wins in Kansas.

Me: The second round is known to the beginning of epic feuds every year. Who will it be this year?

Robert: Every year it involves Matt Kenseth, which is surprising, given how calm he usually is. But this year, I think that the clown in the 22 car acts up again. Joey Logano doesn’t drive respectfully to others, and that will cause problems. Who he angers is in the air. Keslowski could play a part as well.

Michael: I agree with you, but I have two very likely candidates for people Logano ticks off. Kenseth is one, because Joey keeps running into him. But Jimmie Johnson is another. Granted, Johnson is a calm man. But so is Kenseth. And Logano ticked him off. Johnson is now desperate for success, and that won’t help under ugly circumstances.

Me: So who wins the next three races, who advances, and who do you think will be eliminated?

Robert: Simple. Truex wins in Charlotte, and in dominate fashion. Then Elliot will outduel him in an epic battle in Kansas. Talladega will be won by Austin Dillon, giving him a walk off advancement into the round of 8. Edwards, Kyle Busch, Logano, and Johnson will see their Chase hopes end in Talladega. Truex, Elliot, Dillon, Kenseth, Hamlin, Keslowski, Kurt Busch, and Kevin Harvick will advance.

Michael. I feel a little different. Truex will play a game of Monopoly in Charlotte and Kansas, and Elliot will make the Dawsinville siren sound again. Truex, Elliot, Kyle Busch, Kenseth, Edwards, Keslowski, Logano, and Dillon advance. Johnson, Kurt Busch, Hamlin, and, here’s a surprise, Kevin Harvick will be eliminated. I know I sound crazy, but Harvick and Talladega do not like each other, and Truex’s monopoly won’t help.

Me: Well, thank you both for joining me today. Your opinions were both intriguing, and both were quite possibly right. But only time will tell. I’ll have you two back for Talladega.

Robert: Thank you.

Michael: Thanks, and good bye all.

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