Sorry about missing my review of Loudon. What basically happened was this: Martin Truex Jr. dominated, Matt Kenseth passed him, and then on a late restart Kevin Harvick somehow blew past both of them. Weird day, but the points wound up weirder.

Entering the last race before the first chase cutoff, Austin Dillon, Jamie McMurray, Tony Stewart, and Chris Buescher are all out of the next round. Kyle Larson is the man on the bubble, a mere five points ahead of both McMurray and Dillon. Drivers Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Chase Elliot, and a few others are all about 10-20 points ahead of the cutoff. Normally that would seem like a decent gap. But as Jimmie Johnson found out last Fall, and many found out this Spring, Dover is completely random.

Right now only four drivers are in secure spots. Truex and Harvick both have wins in the past two races, securing their place in the next round of the Chase. Brad Keslowski and Kyle Busch are so far ahead in points, I don’t really see them falling out, even if they finish last.

Everyone else is in no man’s land. Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and even Matt Kenseth seem to be fine, but one slipup, and they are out. Last year Johnson came to Dover well inside the Chase cutoff, and a mechanical failure left him out of the next round. So these three must be careful. This place isn’t called the monster mile for nothing.

If your Edwards, Kurt Busch, Elliot, Denny Hamlin, and Larson, you are feeling very nervous indeed. The ironic fact is that Elliot and Larson, the two youngest of this group, are the best at Dover. They finished well here recently. But Edwards, Busch, and Hamlin do not have the best stats here. In fact, Edwards and Busch are actually pretty terrible here. They cannot afford to slip up here.

The drivers outside the cutoff line may be the least concerned, other than those who are secure. Granted, leading is more fun than chasing, but at least you don’t have the added stress of looking over your shoulder. McMurray, Dillon, Stewart, and Buescher really have nothing to lose. They can drive like mad if they have to. And I’ve seen how Stewart drives under pressure. It’s something. 2011, anyone?

This race is nearly impossible to predict. But I have some thoughts. First off, Chase Elliot and Kyle Larson will advance to the next round. Both were outstanding here earlier this season, and both are capable of winning.

Second. At least one person inside the cut will fall out. That always seems to happen in these races, and it’s probably going to happen again. Johnson, Edwards, and Kurt Busch are the drivers who may find themselves outside looking in.

Third. If a driver does get himself back inside the cutoff, it’ll be either McMurray or Stewart. Dillon just doesn’t seem to have what he needs to get to the next Chase round. And Buescher was never going to make the next round. Both Stewart and McMurray have the skill and speed to get in the next round, they just need things to go their way for once.

As for who wins the race, Larson, Elliot, and Stewart are the three who I’ll be watching. Larson and Elliot seem to be the best here, and Stewart has three wins here, one of which came in 2013. So watch out for this trio.