I find that my Chase preview is probably my favorite article to write. I get to predict 10 wild races, 4 eliminations, and 1 champion. That’s a lot of fun. So now, let’s get started.

The Drivers:

Brad Keslowski. Brad enters the Chase in the no. 1 seed, but I’ve noticed that he’s lost some steam since his Summer wins. Brad has a strong Chase history, with multiple wins in recent years and one Championship in 2012. However, Brad has yet to make it to the critical championship round of the Chase. He always digs himself in a hole, and fails to win his way into Homestead. He has to do something about that.

Kyle Busch. Busch has been a huge name this year. 4 wins, tied for the top-Chase seed, and defending Cup Champion. But he has a tough road from here to a second title in a row. Busch is good in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th rounds of the Chase, but the 2nd round is his nemesis. Busch needs to get a head of steam at the start of that round if he is to stay in the Chase.

Denny Hamlin. Hmm, won the Daytona 500, won at Watkins Glen, and won at Richmond. Good signs. He’s had speed throughout the year. But can Hamlin maintain it? He tends to start his Chases well, but lose momentum as the end approaches. His 2010 2nd place finish is proof of that. He led the points into Homestead, only to spin and lose the Championship to Jimmie Johnson. Hamlin can’t do that again.

Kevin Harvick. Who likes the latest version of Nascar’s Chase? Well, Kevin probably raised his hand. Harvick has finished 1st and 2nd in the first two elimination style Chases, and now he is looking to get his second championship. Harvick has no real weak track in the Chase. He is capable of winning at almost any track, and the only one he really needs to worry about is Talladega (Like everyone else). As long as Harvick makes it out of the second round, he is practically guaranteed a spot in the Championship round. Why? Because Phoenix is in round 3, and Harvick is known as the Cactus King. He’s driver who has won the 6 of 9 Phoenix races, and 8 overall. That’s pretty good.

Carl Edwards. Good old Flipper is back in the Chase. Carl is one of the best drivers on the circuit, but he has been surprisingly quite over the Summer. He hasn’t won since the Spring Richmond race, the longest streak of any Joe Gibbs affiliated driver. Carl has been very good in the Chase in the past, but like Brad Keslowski, he has yet to get to that coveted Championship round. Carl has to master round 3.

Martin Truex Jr. Ah, now for Nascar’s most unpredictable driver. Not unpredictable as in crazy. Unpredictable as in he can dominate and finish 25th in the same race. Truex is riding a lot of momentum into the Chase, but he may not get far. Why? Well, the most unique and heartbreaking things always seem to happen to Truex. Things that literally couldn’t happen if you tried to replicate them a thousand times. Truex has the speed, and his crew has the skill, but he doesn’t seem to be able to shake of his misfortune. He’ll have to do that to make it to the Championship round.

Matt Kenseth. Phew. I don’t no what to say about Kenseth. You can give him the worst start to a season in history, and the man still manages to get two wins and a Chase spot. Matt won Dover and Loudon earlier this year, and both are in the first round of the Chase. Kenseth is strong, but if this year is like the past two, Kenseth is going to end up putting someone in the wall or in a headlock. In the past two Chases, Team Penske driver Brad Keslowski and Joey Logano have both raced Kenseth in less than friendly ways, and as a result they have found themselves in trouble. I pity the poor fellow who wrecks Kenseth out of this year’s Chase.

Jimmie Johnson. Ouch. That’s all I’ve got to say. Were it not for his two early victories this year, Johnson would have almost missed the Chase. Jimmie and his team have to get a grip, or they are going to be eliminated faster than you can say Chase. Johnson has struggled under the new Chase format, and he continues to do so. Don’t expect much from the 48, except maybe his annual Texas win.

Joey Logano. Once again, ouch. Logano only made this year’s Chase because he got a win at Michigan earlier this year. Had he not had that, he most likely wouldn’t have been in such a secure spot going into Richmond. Logano may be able to pick things up in the Chase, but if he does, he might want to be sure he avoids Matt Kenseth.

Kyle Larson. Can you spell momentum? If not, just look at either the word I just wrote, or look at Kyle Larson. Larson had been on fire this Summer, and he is getting stronger. Now, he heads into his strongest part of the season: the Chase. Larson has been very fast in the season’s final ten races in the past, and now has a chance to use that to his advantage. Since his first career win at Michigan, Larson has finished 2nd and 3rd, and he looks primed for a solid Chase run.

Tony Stewart. Would’ve seen this coming? I hate to say I told you so, but I noticed when Stewart returned from his back injury he seemed a little faster than normal. Stewart had an outstanding Summer, but he has stumbled coming into the Chase. However, that doesn’t mean he was slow. Stewart has speed, and he has a pretty good history at Chase tracks, having won at every one of them. Stewart is actually following a familiar pattern. Slow Spring, strong Summer, stumble a little, and then break out in the chase. Both Stewart and Kyle Busch have followed this pattern before, and each has won the championship using it. Keep an eye on Smoke in his final Chase. And note to rookies, be careful around him, because he won’t hesitate to use his bumper.

Kurt Busch. Busch has been a model of consistency. Until the second Bristol race, Busch finished every lap turned in Nascar. He won once this season, in Pocono, and he’s been quietly clicking away top-5s and top-10s. That strategy can work in the Chase (Just ask Ryan Newman). However, Busch and his team have to be hungry for a win, seeing as it’s been a while since they reached victory lane. And to win the Championship, youpretty much have to win in the Chase.

Chris Buescher. Surprise! Ever heard of Chris Buescher? No? Let me give you an idea of his accomplishments. 2015 Xfinity Series champion, 2016 Sprint Cup Series rookie, and the surprise Chase contender of 2016! Thanks to a great pit call by crew chief Bob Osbourne, Chris won the second Pocono race of the year, and he is now in his first career Chase. Also, he is the only rookie to win this season. Now, I hate to spoil his party, but don’t expect Buescher to last long. Front Row Motorsports is the best f Nascar’s miniature teams, but they aren’t really a match for the big teams in the Chase. Still, with a little good fortune, Buescher could find his way into the second or even third rounds of the Chase.

Chase Elliot. While Chris Buescher may be the first rookie to win, Elliot is proving why he was chosen to replace Jeff Gordon in the 24 car after Gordon retired. Elliot has had several impressive runs, and were it not for some seriously bad luck over the Summer, Chase probably would already have won. Now, he finds himself battling for a Championship, which is nothing new to him. However, he is against far stronger competitors than he’s ever faced. Will he be capable of making it through the Chase? He is, he just needs to get that win, and show himself he’s good enough. Poor guy is to hard on himself.

Austin Dillon. The last of the four first time Chase drivers, Dillon has been the quietest, but most consistent, of them. Granted, he is the lowest ranked of them, but Dillon is simply clicking off good finish after good finish. Still, a win would be great. No Richard Childress Racing driver has won a cup race since 2013, when Kevin Harvick won at Phoenix. And Harvick isn’t with RCR anymore. So now it falls to Dillon to carry the RCR flag. And get that darn win.

Jamie McMurray. Making his second Chase appearance is the quietly consistent McMurray. He has been good this year, and he now finds himself in the Chase for the second year in a row. McMurray hasn’t won a race since 2013, and he hasn’t exactly been outstanding this year. So he needs something to happen for him to have a chance to stay in the Chase hunt.

 

Well, those are the 16 drivers. Now for the races and eliminations. This is the tricky part. It’s nearly impossible to correctly predict the Chase, but one can try.

The Challenger Round:

Race 1: Chicagoland.

Winner: Tony Stewart. Surprising pick isn’t it? Well, Stewart has the most wins of any driver in Chicagoland history, and he has been pretty good at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. Look out Chicago, because Smoke is coming to town!

Race 2: Loudon.

Winner: Kevin Harvick. Harvick has been so dominate at Loudon as of late, but for some reason he can’t get that win. We said the same thing about Bristol a few weeks ago, and Harvick won there. Look for the same here.

Race 3: Dover.

Winner: Kyle Larson. Larson could easily win at Chicago as well, but he’s been so strong at Dover that I can’t help but pick him to win this race. He has had so much speed, win no. 2 seems just as inevitable as no. 1.

Drivers eliminated:

Chris Buescher: Sorry Chris, but you just don’t have the equipment to make it out of round 1.

Jimmie Johnson: Yes, I’m picking Jimmie to fall out of round 1. He’s just not strong enough to keep going.

Jamie McMurray: I like McMurray, but he just doesn’t seem fast enough to make it through round 1.

Joey Logano. Same as Johnson and McMurray. Just not good enough.

The Contender Round.

Race 4: Charlotte.

Winner: Martin Truex Jr. Who in their right mind wouldn’t pick Truex after his dominate when earlier this year? He lead 392 of 400 laps, and won the race. Look for something similar this year.

Race 5: Kansas.

Winner: Chase Elliot. Elliot finally grabs that first win here. He has been outstanding at the 1.5s this year, and he most likely will continue that at Kansas.

Race 6: Talladega.

Winner: Austin Dillon. Dillon has been amazing at Talladega in the past. Earlier this year he led laps, wrecked 3 times, and still finished 3rd. That’s impressive.

Drivers eliminated:

Kyle Busch: That’s very bold, I know. But to look at Busch’s past in these three races, he just doesn’t seem likely to survive. I could very well be wrong, but Busch’s record is against him.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin always falters here, and I don’t see that changing.

Kurt Busch: Consistency is all well and good, but that won’t help survive Talladega, a track he has never triumphed at.

Matt Kenseth: It may seem unlikely to see 3 JGR drivers eliminated in 1 round, but Kenseth and this round have a foul history. Don’t see that changing.

The Eliminator Round

Race 7: Martinsville.

Winner: Jeff Gordon. Yes, Gordon did retire. But he is going to return to sub for Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Jeff is good enough to win here.

Race 8: Texas.

Winner: Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie has win 3 Fall races in a row here, and he will most likely come into this race under no pressure. Watch out for the 48.

Race 9: Phoenix.

Winner: Kevin Harvick. The Cactus King returns. Enough said.

Drivers eliminated:

Chase Elliot: I hate to do this, but Elliot and Martinsville do not mix well. Now, he could pull a surprise win, and prove me wrong.

Carl Edwards: Carl is good, but he can’t seem to get past this round. Sorry Carl.

Brad Keslowski: Brad is good, but Martinsville has been his nemesis in recent races. It will be again.

Austin Dillon: Wouldn’t have seen him making it this far, but mistakes by others help.

The Champinship Round.

Race 10: Homestead.

The Final Four:

Kevin Harvick: Harvick has made it to Homestead in contention for the Championship 3 years in a row. Look for him to make it 4.

Martin Truex Jr: It’s surprising, but old heartbreaker is probably the only JGR who will make it to Homestead. He’s just good enough to make it.

Kyle Larson: The young gun is on fire, and the Chase is his time to shine. Larson is amazing in the final ten races, and Homestead might be his best.

Tony Stewart: Look for Smoke to replicate Jeff Gordon’s surprise Homestead appearance. I know he seems a bit of an under dog, but Stewart has more experience than anyone in the Chase field. He also has more Homestead wins than anyone in the Chase field.

Champion: Larson or Stewart. Granted, of these four, Stewart and Larson aren’t exactly standouts. But when it comes to Homestead-Miami Speedway, Stewart is the master, and Larson is right up there with him. It’s not a matter of dominating the Chase. It’s getting to Homestead for these two.

 

So what do you think? Some may think I play favorites, but Larson and Stewart actually have the best all around Chase background. Stewart has wins at every Chase track, and if memory serves that’s something no one else can say. And Larson is just plain fast right now. And when you couple that with his speed at Homestead, look out. I get that eliminating the JGR drivers is hard to believe, but there is a reason that they have just one championship in the past decade.

These are my picks, and I hope for a good Chase. Let’s get rolling!