7 months. 25 races. 16 spots. 12 already claimed. 4 remaining. As Nascar rolls into Richmond, every mind isn’t on this weekend. It’s on how you make it into next weekend with a shot at the championship. 16 spots are available in the Chase, and 12 have already been secured by various drivers. The other four are up for grabs.

Right now Chase Elliot, Austin Dillon, Jami McMurray, and Chris Buescher occupy these four spots. Elliot and Dillon each control their own fates. So long as Dillon finishes within 7 spots of McMurray, and Chase within 15, these two young guns can lock themselves in their first Chase. Both are capable of this, but each will need to improve after their qualifying.

McMurray is in a different boat. He is in the Chase by 22 points. If he finishes within 20 points of 17th place Ryan Newman, and Newman doesn’t win, Jamie is in. His problem is if a new winner emerges. Then McMurray will be seven points out of the Chase. Should there be a new winner, who is behind McMurray in points and in  the top-30, Jamie will in a best case scenario have to be 8 spots ahead of Austin Dillon. Worst case he’ll have to be 20 ahead of Chase Elliot. So McMurray’s fate is precarious.

But of these four, none faces a steeper challenge than Chris Buescher. Buescher has a win, which most of the field would kill for. But Buescher is a mere 11 points ahead of 31st place David Ragan. Chris must stay in the top-30 to be eligible for the Chase. That means Chris must finish within 9 spots of David Ragan. His best case scenario is he has to finish within 11 spots of Ragan. Chris does control his destiny, but he can’t make any mistakes, which have plagued him.

Two drivers n the outside looking in can make the Chase on points. Ryan Newman left Darlington with a 7 point deficit to Jamie McMurray. He now has a 22 point deficit, courtesy of a 15 point penalty thanks to is car failing post race inspection. Newman has lost a total of 25 points in penalties this year, and that may be the difference between him making the Chase or missing it. There is no way Newman can guarantee himself a spot in the Chase. Even if he passes McMurray, which would mean finishing roughly 25 positions ahead of him in a worst case scenario, Newman would still be out should there be a new winner. However, if Buescher falls out of the top-30, Newman would be in the Chase, as long as he stays ahead of the other driver with a points chance: Kasey Kahne.

Kasey Kahne is in the middle of one of the worst stretches he’s had. He’s now in danger of missing his second straight Chase. There are two ways he can make the Chase. He either has to win (Like every other non Chase driver), or he has to finish ahead of Newman by 25 spots and Chris Buescher has to fall out of the top-30. Not an easy scenario.

There are several other driver who could make the Chase with a walk off win. But only one has shown enough speed to be a factor, in my opinion. Ryan Blaney has had lightning fast cars lately, but been in the wrong place at the wrong time so many times. He no faces a must win situation. He could do it. Ryan been fast, and with a few things going his way, Blaney could make the Chase in his rookie season.

The Chase is somewhat complicated this year, what with the random win from Buescher, but here’s how it looks to men. Elliot and Dillon should be fine. As long as they finish as well as they have recently, they’re in. I don’t see Newman or Kahne getting in the Chase. Neither has been fast enough. I think Chris Buescher can get in the Chase, but he has to avoid making mistakes.

That leaves McMurray. I think he’ll be fine point wise. But my concern is the winner of the race. I think Ryan Blaney could steal a win. That would put McMurray out.

Now, who do I think will win the race. Well, Blaney is a contender, but Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, and Kyle Larson all seem to be worth watching to. Busch has bbeen dominate here lately. Larson has been lightning fast in the past couple races. An Stewart is making his last run at the track where he got his first win, which gives you a pretty fierce desire to win. One of those four could win, and the fate of the Chase hangs in the balance.