Ah, Watkins Glen. One of the nicest looking tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, this 2.45 mile road course is both treacherous and thrilling. And now, it is going to say goodbye to the 2 drivers it has favored most over the years: Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon.

The Glen has favored a variety of drivers over the years, but none more than Tony Stewart. Stewart has won this race 5 times, and he is almost always in the mix. That, combined with the fact that he won at Sonoma (The other road course) earlier this year, suggest Smoke grabbing the checkered flag.

Stewart’s teammates all have mixed success here. Kurt Busch has had his good days here, but no wins. Kevin Harvick has a win, and he nearly won this race last year. Danica Patrick is decent here, and with a little luck she could pull an upset victory. While this trio is good, they’re no match for their boss.

Joe Gibbs Racing is a decent team here. Kyle Busch is the teams chief threat, seeing as he has 2 wins and an average finish of 10.5 here. Carl Edwards has had very good results here, but a win has been elusive. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth aren’t exactly favorites this weekend. Neither has ever won on a road course, and neither have had much success here. Still stranger things have happened…     Anyway, JGR has some speed, but they will have to deal with Smoke.

Remember how I mentioned Jeff Gordon? Well, if you ask me, he is Hedrick Motorsport’s lone threat this weekend. Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne have never won here, and Chase Elliot had a terrible run at Sonoma earlier this year. Gordon has 4 wins at the Glen, but can he get the 88 car in victory lane? Not sure.

Team Penske has had success at the Glen ever since Brad Keslowski joined the team. Brad has finished second here three times over the stretch of 2011-13. But he never won here. Joey Logano won this race last year on fuel milage, but he was by no means the fastest (or most skilled) driver on the track. While Logano’s success was a bit random, Keslowski is without a doubt Team Penske’s biggest threat here.

One other team to watch is Chip Ganassi Racing. Jamie McMurray isn’t that good here, but Kyle Larson has an 8.0 average finish, the best among active drivers. These two are battling on the Chase bubble, so there are no teammates anymore. Just war.

I can say with complete confidence that Tony Stewart is my pick to win this weekend. He won at Sonoma, his crew chief was the lead engineer for the fastest car last year, and Stewart has 5 wins here, which is the record for all drivers. I think all that, combined with the speed he’s had as of late, suggests a great, if not perfect, day for Smoke.