Are we there already? We’ve made it past the Coca-Cola 600. How time flies. We’ve reached the end of the second segment that I mentally put in place, and we have begun segment 3. Here is how my 16 Chase spot predictions now look.

1: Kyle Busch. He’s definitely my top pick as of now. No reason not to pick him. Pure speed and skill, and he’s become a very good person off track as well.

2: Kevin Harvick. Still very fast and consistent. Not sure if he’s a champion this year though. Still, keep an eye on him.

3: Kurt Busch. Surprisingly consistent. Most top-tens in the Cup Series as of now, and not slowing down. Hasn’t won, but is a constant threat to do so.

4: Carl Edwards. Out of the gate fast. Didn’t see this coming. 2 wins and a lot of speed. Joe Gibbs Racing’s newest driver may be it’s fastest, other than Kyle Busch that is.

5: Chase Elliot. I haven’t seen a rookie as fast as Elliot in years. He’s almost won several times, and will undoubtedly do so this year. And he’s consistent. Undoubtedly a strong championship contender.

6: Martin Truex Jr. Coming off his insane Coca-Cola 600 win, Truex seems to be a serious Chase threat. But he needs his pit crew to improve. One mistake in the Chase could spell doom for his team. Still, he’s having a year to remember.

7: Kyle Larson. Another surprise. Has shown exceptional speed, but hasn’t been able to close the deal. If he can finish the race, he’s got a shot.

8: Jimmie Johnson. Good, but not good enough. since his two wins he hasn’t done much. Expected more.

9: Austin Dillon. Would’ve thought this? Lot’s of speed and top-tens. His first win seems inevitable, and he’s Chase bound right now. Expect a strong Summer.

10: Denny Hamlin. A Daytona 500 is nothing to squawk at, but he’s been unimpressive since. Was the 500 a fluke? No, but he needs to improve If he’s to contend for a title.

11: Matt Kenseth. Bad luck aside, Kenseth’s had a good year. Reality involved, Kenseth’s had an awful year. Good news: His Dover win puts him in the Chase. But can he contend? And will Joey Logano stay away from him?

12: Brad Keslowski. Two wins early are good, but inconsistency has plagued Team Penske. Need to improve on that. One bad Chase round will end Brad’s chances.

13: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Yes, this is the man I picked for the Championship. Regretting that. No speed or wins, and he’s lost his best plate racing car. Not looking good for DJ.

14: Tony Stewart. Say what? The guy who busted his back in January? Yep, he’s back. Smoke’s shown some promise, and he’s going into his best part of the year. Championship? Probably not. But Chase? Heck yeah! The 3-time champ has started his farewell tour.

15: Trevor Bayne. The 2011 Daytona 500 winner has finally gained his footing in his no. 6 car, and Trevor seems to be gaining speed. He’s near a Chase spot now, and I think he gets in.

16: Ryan Blaney. The rookie in the 21 car is fast, but can he make the Chase? I think so, but he’s going to have to drive like mad to do so.

Near Misses. Joey Logano: Shocking, but Logano is doing terrible. I see much more speed in others, and unlike other drivers, nobody wants to help Logano into the Chase but his teammate. So I don’t see Logano in the Chase.

AJ Allmendinger: AJ is a contender for the Chase, and he will be in a close battle with Logano, Bayne, and Blaney for the last spots. Just don’t think his team has the money they need. A road course win might solve his problems though.

Ryan Newman: Consistency won’t work 3 years in a row. He isn’t fast enough for the Chase.

Jamie McMurray: McMurray may have a shot at the Chase, but it will be hard. He needs a great Summer to make it, and I’m not sure he can get the finishes he needs. Still, stranger things have happened.

 

These are my Chase picks. However, the Summer may bring some random winners into this year’s Chase. Can Tony Stewart win in his final season? Can Trevor Bayne or another Roush Fenway Racing driver get in the Chase? Can Logano finally win the race he so desperately needs? For Stewart, I’d say yes, a win is very possible. But Bayne and Logano are mysteries. And so are many other drivers. Only time will tell who makes the 2016 Chase, but I can assure you of this: the race to the Chase will be a wild one, and I’m sure there will be several surprises.