Wild Card Weekend

Talladega. The name that makes every racers blood freeze in his veins. Built on ancient native American burial grounds, this 2.66 mile beast is the fastest and most dangerous track in Nascar. Talladega is wild, random, and utterly unpredictable. I don’t think I have ever accurately chosen a winner here. But that’s what I love about this place. With the right car, and the right timing, anyone can win here.

While Talladega is random, there is one family it always seems to show partiality towards. The Earnhardt’s. Dale Earnhardt Sr. won here 10 times. Dale Earnhardt Jr. won here 6 times. Dale Jr. won last year’s Spring race, and had Nascar done a better job scoring the Fall race, Dale Jr. would have won the Fall race as well. So Jr. is the only person that I’m certain will spend at least some of the race out front. And who knows, maybe rookie Jeffrey Earnhardt could ask his uncle for some tips.

Jr’s teammates at Hendrick Motorsports have had mixed results here. Jimmie Johnson has won this race before, but that was years ago. Kasey Kahne is pretty consistent here, but he hasn’t actually won. Chase Elliot may be one to watch. He ran well here in the Xfinity Series, and he won the Xfinity race Daytona earlier this year.

Joe Gibbs Racing is coming off of four straight victories, but this is the one track that none of their drivers are particularly impressive at. Carl Edwards, winner of the past two Sprint Cup races, has never won here, and his average finish is outside the top-twenty. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have each won here once, but their average finishing positions are no higher than 19th. Ouch. Matt Kenseth has also won once at Talladega, and he has had decent finishes here as of late. But if his luck stays the way it has been, he will be the first drivers to get wrecked.

Stewart-Hass Racing is a team to watch here. Kevin Harvick has won here before, and he runs well here almost every time we race at Dega. Kurt Busch is a mystery. He has never won a restrictor-plate race, yet he always seems to run well at Talladega and Daytona. He could get that elusive plate racing victory this weekend. Don’t forget about Danica Patrick. She has had a rough start to this season, but she could turn it around this weekend. She has run up front here many times, and she would love nothing more than a victory. Last but definitely not least, Tony Stewart. Stewart made his return to Nascar last weekend at Richmond, and he will race this weekend. The plan is for Stewart to start the race, but during the first caution, he is supposed to turn the car over to Xfinity driver Ty Dillon. However, I know Stewart well, and I don’t see him turning his ride over to anyone. Stewart has won here before, and a victory would put him one step closer to making the Chase in his final year.

Over the past few weeks, Roush-Fenway Racing has found speed in it’s cars, and all three drivers are driving competitively. And Talladega is one place you should never count out RFR drivers. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. nearly won this race three years ago, and he has the best average finish among active drivers. And teammate Trevor Bayne is a great plate racer (Just look at his Daytona 500 trophy). Greg Biffle is the one driver I’m not so sure about. He has never won at Talladega, and he hasn’t won a race in three years.

Team Penske drivers Joey Logano and Brad Keslowski have each won Talladega but both are struggling this year. Add to that the fact that no one plans on giving either driver an inch, and you’ve got a recipe for a bad day at Penske Racing.

Richard Childress Racing is definitely a team to watch. Talladega is one of the teams best tracks historically, and all three drivers run well here. And with the newfound speed the team is showing, a victory seems very close.

The unique thing about Talladega is that anyone can win. The driver driving for the tiny, one car team can battle his way to a victory over Nascar’s finest. Low funded team see this as a way to earn a victory that will boost them into the Chase. Say David Ragan, driving for the tiny BK Motorsports team, were to win this race, he would put himself in the Chase. That would be crazy. But it’s possible. And every driver on a tiny team knows it.

I can’t really put my finger on one driver in particular who I think will win, so I’m going to use a predicting format my grandfather taught me. I’ll pick five possible winners from regular teams, and I’ll pick one wild card driver. My first five drivers are Dale Earnhardt Jr., Trevor Bayne, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Chase Elliot, and Austin Dillon. That’s a lot of young guys, but this is the track were drivers tend to claim their first victory. My wild card is David Ragan. I choose Ragan because in the past he has won two plate races, and he won this race three years ago. Add to that his recent speed, and you have a possible winner. But at Talladega, you can be leading on one straightaway, and you can be at the back of the pack on the next. Oh, and with two photo finishes already in the books this year, a third seems very possible. Who knows?

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