Almost every time a rookie comes to Nascar’s top level, there’s plenty of interest in him. Who is he? How did he get into racing? How old is he? What has he won before? And for the first few years of a drivers career, not much is expected of him.  But until recent times, no one has ever given any rookie or young driver a serious shot at winning the Sprint Cup championship. While that doesn’t seem to be likely this year, after the first several races we have run, the chances seem better than expected.

Since the start of Nascar, a rookie winning a race was almost unheard of. Until 1999, the only rookie to win more than one race was Davey Allison (two). But then, something happened. It went by the name of ‘Smoke.’

Tony Stewart was an Indy Car champion, and a proven winner at every level of racing. But when he came to Nascar, no one expected him to be outstanding. Well, he proved them wrong, winning 3 races, and finishing fourth in the final points. After that outstanding performance, Nascar has seen many successful rookies, but Stewart remains the best.

This year there are 5 rookies: Chase Elliot, Ryan Blaney, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Chris Beuscher, and Brian Scott. Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson, both third year drivers, are what we would call the 2016 young guns. While Dillon and Larson don’t fit the rookie classification, they do fit the young gun classification. Of these 7, I think that at least 4 are future Cup champs.

First would be Elliot. Chase is the son of former Sprint Cup champion Bill Elliot. Chase has only been in Nascar’s top three divisions for two years, but in his very first full year he won the Nascar Xfinity Series championship. Now he has taken over the no. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet for the retiring Jeff Gordon, and he has run well in almost every race this season.

Ryan Blaney is also the son of a former racer, although his father Dave was never what we would call championship caliber. Ryan is without a doubt a championship caliber driver. Over the past several years Blaney has full-time in the Truck Series and part-time in the Cup and Xfinity series. He has won on all levels but the Cup, but he only raced about 7 Cup races prior to this season. He is now behind the wheel of the historic no. 21 Wood Brothers Ford, and it looks like he may be capable of getting the Wood Brothers baxck where they belong: in victory lane.

Austin Dillon is now entering his third year in the Cup Series, and he has yet to win. It’s not for the lack of effort, it’s just that his no. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet team hasn’t seemed to be able to deliver. Until recently. Late last year him and teammate Paul Menard swapped crew chiefs, and ever since Dillon has been driving like a veteran. Since the start of 2016, Dillon has been a consistent top-ten, top-five contender, and he seems to be closing in on his first win.

Kyle Larson came into the Cup Series 3 years ago, and expectations for him were very high. In his rookie season he showed promise, finishing runner up at Fontana in the Spring and nearly winning Chicagoland in the Fall. Larson just missed the Chase, and coming into his sophomore year the expectations weren’t shrinking. But 2015 was a disaster. So the talented rookie now has become the now or never 3rd year driver. I still think he can make his no. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet a winner, and possibly a champion in the future.

This leaves Chris Buescher, Brian Scott, and Jeffrey Earnhardt. Buescher won last year’s Xfinity Series championship, but he is currently on a low funded, underdog team. I don’t think he has the skills to win here. However, should he be picked up by a better team, I think he is good for a couple wins, and maybe a few Chase appearances.

That just leaves Jeffrey and Brain. While this may seem cruel, Scott and Earnhardt haven’t really earned there place here. Neither has shown any Cup level skill, and neither really belongs in the Cup Series, and I’m pretty sure that neither will ever win a Cup race. I may seem cruel, but I’m being honest.

There are several other up and coming drivers in the Xfinity and Truck Series that show promise. Eric Jones, Daniel Suarez, Jeb Burton, and Darrel Wallace Jr. are chief among them.

Jones has won multiple times on the Xfinity level, and he was last year’s Truck champion, with several wins. Eric is undoubtedly a one of the most skilled racers I’ve seen, and it doesn’t seem unlikely that he will be given a Cup ride in the near future, probably with Joe Gibbs Racing. I wouldn’t bet against him winning a Cup Championship.

Suarez is a Mexican racer, and he has been very consistent over the past year. As of now he is the Xfinity point leader, and he seems to be capable of winning. I’m not sure if he’s a future Cup champ, but he seems to be a very good candidate to become the first foreign born driver to win a Nascar Championship.

Jeb Burton is a Truck series driver, son of former Daytona 500 winner Ward Burton. He is also the nephew of Jeff Burton, who won several Cup races. Jeb is still learning, but he’s won multiple races, and with the right ride and proper teaching, he could become a solid Cup contender.

Darrel Wallace Jr. is only the second African-American driver to win a Nascar race, and he is now in the Xfinity Series, and is doing well. He may have a future with the struggling Roush-Fenway Racing, and I can see him winning some Cup races. A championship, maybe.

These drivers are the next class of Nascar, and my prediction is that by 2020, at least 1 of the drivers listed above will become a Cup champ, and that by the time 2030 rolls around, almost all of them will be considered Nascar’s finest. Considering my favorite driver (Tony Stewart), is retiring after 2016, I guess that one of these will become my new favorite. I’m not sure which though. Well, I’ve got almost a year to decide.