Phoenix. The final cutoff. At the end of the day, four will advance, and four shall fall. Four dreams stay alive, four dreams are crushed until next year. As of now, one driver is secure in the next round, four control their own fates, and three need a victory. Who will win? Who will fall? Will an underdog pull off an upset? Only time will tell.

When Nascar rolls into Phoenix, drivers aren’t really racing for a win. They are racing for second. Since 2012 Kevin Harvick has won all but two races at Phoenix. He has won the past four races in a row, and were it not for a couple of unfortunate fuel problems, he would have won the past seven races here. He has actually won at this track seven times in his career. And he’s not slowing down.

However, every streak must end eventually. The question is: who is fast enough to end his winning streak? I honestly have no idea. There are several fast drivers, but none seem to be good enough to dethrone Harvick. However, there are a few that stand out.

Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson are two that stand out. Over the past several weeks these teammates seem to have found some speed in their cars. Both have been in contention for wins, and it seems inevitable that they will eventually win a race. A win at Phoenix would be a huge confidence boost heading into the 2016 season.

Another driver who would love a win heading into next year is Danica Patrick. Despite making significant gains this year, she still has yet to win a race. She has been close though. And now knowing that she has been given an extension on her ride with Stewart-Hass Racing, what better way too say thank you than to win? She has had some success in the past at Phoenix, and she’s teammates with Harvick.

However, if everyone, drivers, pit crews, and bloggers like me, are honest with ourselves, Harvick is without a single doubt the driver to beat. But anything can happen.

The biggest talk of the week is who will advance to the final round of the Chase. Four drivers will leave Phoenix with a chance to win a championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Right now Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. are the four drivers in the chase. Carl Edwards, Brad Keslowski, Kurt Busch, and Joey Logano are all on the outside looking in.

Edwards is the only driver within a reasonable distance of Truex to have a decent shot to pass him in points. Kurt, Brad, and Joey are all in win to advance situations. Truex seems to be rather vulnerable. If any driver not already in advance position wins, Truex is out. And unfortunately for him, the only way to get out of that position is to pass Harvick or Kyle in points. And he is not particularly good at Phoenix. However, if he can get a top-seven finish, and none of the drivers behind him win, he is in the next round.

In my opinion, I think the standings will stay the way they are. However, anything can happen in a race. And Phoenix has had some unexpected twists in the past.