Dover. The Monster Mile. For decades this beast of a track has terrorized drivers. To some it is kind. Look at JImmie Johnson. he has won here ten times. To some it is not so friendly. Just ask Joey Logano and Clint Bowyer. Both have flipped upside down here at Dover, and trust me, that is not fun at all.

This is the final race of the first round of the Chase, and one of the biggest stories right now, is defending champion Kevin Harvick. Kevin has dominated the first two races of the 2015 Chase. At Chicgoland, he led dozens of laps. And then at Loudon, he dominated, leading 212 laps. And yet he is second to last in the points, 23 out of the next round. How is this possible? At Chicago Jimmie Johnson slammed into Kevin and blew his tire, sending Kevin into the wall. Then at Loudon, Harvick ran out of gas while leading in the final three laps. He now faces an uphill climb to make it to the next round.

As of now the four drivers outside the Chase looking in are Kyle Busch, Paul Menard, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer, and in that order. Menard and Busch are only 2 or 3 points away from the first couple drivers who are locked in the next round, so they can make it on points. Harvick is 23 points out of the final Chase spot, so he can make it on points, but a win is what he will most likely need. After all, a win guarantees you a spot in the next Chase round. Bowyer is 39 points out of the next round. While mathematically speaking he could make it on points, the only realistic way he could advance is with a win.

Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are all pretty much safe in the next round. Matt and Denny both have wins, and Jimmie, Carl, and Joey all have so many points it would take an impossibly awful day for them to miss the next round.

Ryan Newman, Brad Kelowski, Martin Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, and Jeff Gordon are all in the gray zone. They have a small point cushion, but nothing big. A bad day by any of them spells doom for their Chase chances. All of them have won at Dover in the past, so they all have that to comfort them. But one slip up, one mistake, can end their season. That is what you call pressure.

Jamie McMurray and Dale Earnhardt Jr. each have a rather tenuous hold on the final two Chase spots. Jamie has decent history at Dover, and Earnhardt isn’t terrible. However, they only have about a 3 point cushion over the guys outside the Chase, so they can’t afford to lose any spots. As long as they keep the no. 27 of Paul Menard and the no. 18 of Kyle Busch in their sights, they are most likely secure.

That stated, who will win? That is an easy one. Kevin Harvick. His rotten luck over the past two weeks has to have motivated him, and a win is the best chance he has to advance. And he recent performance at Dover is outstanding. He is my pick to win, no questions asked.