After three weeks of racing on tracks with average speeds of over 170 miles per hour, Nascar goes out west to the first short track of the year: Phoenix International Speedway. This is a great place to race, but after the past few races, it seems as if the race will be for second.

Kevin Harvick has won four out of the past five races at this place, with a total of six wins here overall. That is the most of all time. He’s teammates Tony Stewart and Danica Patrick have also had success here, Tony having multiple wins. However; neither of them is nearly as fast as Harvick. And judging by his performance over the past couple weeks, Kevin isn’t slowing down. Also, Kurt Busch has been reinstated to his position at Stewart-Hass Racing, but can he manage to reclaim the speed he lost over the mid-point of the 2014 season?

Another team that has been fast here is Joe Gibbs Racing. It’s drivers, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin, have all had success here. Edwards and Hamlin are the only drivers to have won here aside from Harvick in the past three years. Kenseth has won at Phoenix, but that was a while ago, and with a different team. Edwards also won with a different team, but he has been fast with Joe Gibbs Racing, and his win was in the past couple of years.

Hendrick Motorsports is a team that almost always has at least one driver in the top ten, and all four of its drivers have had a great amount of success here. In fact, in the past four races at Phoenix, the Hendrick drivers have taken turns finishing second. The best of the four is Jimmie Johnson, with five wins. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has one win, Jeff Gordon has two wins, and Kasey Kahne has one. All four have been fast, so if some how Harvick has a problem, these four are good candidates for the win. And Harvick has had some seriously bad luck over the past year.

Roush-Fenway Racing is a good team, but they lost their best Phoenix driver when Carl Edwards went to Joe Gibbs Racing. That leaves Greg Biffle, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Trevor Bayne. Biffle has been fast so far this season, and Bayne has been good at Phoenix, but as a whole Roush-Fenway has lacked success over the past year. They are trying to regain speed, but they have yet to reclaim the magic they had over the past decade. But, one win or seriously good run would go a long way for the team.

One team that has been rather consistent over the past year is Richard Childress Racing. Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, and Austin Dillon have been fast enough to claim top tens and top fives, and their running at Phoenix is good. A win would really be a boost for the team, because despite the fact that they have been consistent, they haven’t won a race since 2013, and that was with Kevin Harvick, who is no longer with the team. But, consistency counts, and over time it may result in wins.

One other team that has had speed all year is Chip Ganassi Racing. While the drivers, Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray, only have one win in the past year, the 2014 All-Star Race, they have been consistent and nearly won several races. And even though their finishes this year don’t show it, they have been fast.

The facts stated, who will win this weekend? Everything points to a victory for Kevin Harvick. Should he win it would be his seventh straight top two finish. However, he has had some strange luck this past year, and should he have a problem, there will be several drivers ready to take advantage. Basically stated, it all will most likely come down to whether or not something happens to Harvick. That is, if he’s his usual dominate self, which he almost always is.